June 14, 2024

フィリピンGDP-9.5%は改善の予兆? 政府の過度な期待

先月末に2020年のGDPの発表があり、前年と比べて9.5%縮小したことに関して貿易産業省長官はGDPの縮小は観光業や小売業が受けたパンデミックの影響を示しているに過ぎないと述べ、四半期ごとのGDPの水準と比べると回復に向かっているため改善傾向にあると語りました。

第1四半期  0.2%減
第2四半期 16.9%減
第3四半期 11.5%減
第4四半期  8.3%減       (前年同期比)

確かにロペス長官が語るように四半期別で1年通して振り返ると改善されている傾向にあるように取れますが、ロックダウンなどの制限によって消費行動が落ち込み、内需が減少していることに変わりはなく、第4四半期の回復は活動制限が少し緩和され、厳しい制限下に置かれなくなったため若干の回復が見られますが全体的にネガティブな状況にあります。
しかし、フィリピン経済に限りませんが今後も感染者数などによって、経済が左右されることが予測されます。

速報でもお伝えしたようにフィリピン政府は今年、GDP増加率が最大で7.5%ほど増加すると見込み、息巻いていますが…
一定数の人口がワクチンを接種し終えるまでは政府が感染対策を中止しなければならないことを考えると、経済政策も充分に取れずに内需の回復もスローモードとなるでしょう。

以下、MANILA BULLETINより

What does 9.5 percent GDP shrinkage mean? DTI’s Lopez breaks it down

Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Secretary Ramon Lopez said Friday that the 9.5 percent contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) for the year 2020 just shows how badly the Philippine economy was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Ang ibig sabihin po nito ay naging mas maliit ang pinaka-output at equivalent din po ito sa income ng ating economiya versus the previous year, 2019 (This means that versus the previous year of 2019, our output or equivalent income shrank this year),” Lopez said during Friday’s Laging Handa press briefing.

“Alam naman natin na yung pandemic at lockdown ay nangyari noong 2020, kaya po ineexpect na natin na talagang babagal yung takbo ng ekonomiya ng kabuuang 2020 (We know that the pandemic and lockdown took place in 2020, that’s why we expected this economic slowdown for the entirety of 2020),” he said.

“Mas mahirap po ang kita, mas mahirap ang kabuhayan ng 2020 versus 2019. Yun ang pinaka-ibig sabihin po noon (Income was harder to come by and livelihood was more difficult in 2020 compared to 2019. That’s basically what it means),” he bluntly said of the country’s GDP performance.

Lopez said the tourism and retail industries were among those hardest hit by the pandemic-triggered lockdown last year. Parts of the country were placed under enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in March 2020, it can recalled.

But the DTI boss considers it a “bright spot” that the country’s GDP has actually been improving, and this is evident when the figures are viewed on a quarter by quarter basis.

“Malaki po talaga ang binagsak doon pa lang sa 2nd quarter. Kung naalala ninyo, nag-minus 16.9 percent. Noong 3rd quarter…minus 11.5 percent. Lumiit na ang…pagka-decline. At nung 4th quarter…minus 8.3 percent (There was a huge plunge during the 2nd quarter. If you recall, it was minus 16.9 percent. It was minus 11.5 percent in the 3rd quarter. So the decline slowed down. At during the 4th quarter it was minus 8.3 percent).

 

“Quarter on quarter nakikita natin yung slight improvement. Pero kung titignan yung buong taon, yung minus 8.3 percent ng 4th quarter hindi enough yan para mabawi yung pagbaba ng ekonomiya kaya naging minus 9.5 percent ang total year (Quarter on quarter we see the slight improvement. But if you look at the entire year, the minus 8.3 percent of the 4th quarter wasn’t enough to halt the economic slide, that’s why our total is a minus 9.5 percent for the year),” Lopez said.