October 22, 2021

2021第一四半期のGDP 上方修正

フィリピンの第1四半期のGDP成長率は、前年同期の-4.2%から-3.9%に修正されたと、フィリピン統計局が発表しました。フィリピン統計局によると、修正に大きく貢献したのは、専門職・ビジネスサービスが-6.5%から-4.4%に、建設業が-24.2%から-22.6%に、不動産がが-13.2%から-11.7%に修正されたことだと言います。また、2021年第1四半期のその他の地域のGNI(国民総所得)も、-10.9%から-10.6%へと上方修正されたようです。

Regina Capitalのマネージング・ディレクター、ルイス・リムリンガンは、「投資家は、第2四半期の経済成長率の回復を見込んで株を買い入れている」と述べます。

この高い成長率は、2020年第2四半期のGDPが16.9%という記録的な下落となったため、低いベース効果を考慮したものです。

フィリピンの経済責任者は、経済が徐々に再開される中で、今年の成長率は6%から7%になると予想しています。

昨年の大幅な下落がベースとなっているため、経済回復には程遠いですが、良い兆候と捉えることもできます。政府には引き続き感染防止対策と経済活動のバランスをとって欲しいです。

First quarter GDP growth rate revised to -3.9 percent from -4.2 percent

MANILA – The Philippines’ gross domestic product growth rate was revised to -3.9 percent from -4.2 percent reported earlier in the year, the state statistics bureau said on Monday.

The Philippine Statistics Authority said major contributors to the revision were professional and business services, which was revised from -6.5 percent to -4.4 percent; construction, from -24.2 percent to -22.6 percent; and real estate and ownership of dwellings, from -13.2 percent to -11.7 percent.

“Net Primary Income (NPI) from the Rest of the World and Gross National Income (GNI) both recorded upward revisions from -75.8 percent to -75.6 percent and -10.9 percent to -10.6 percent, respectively, in the first quarter of 2021,” the PSA said.

The GDP revision comes as the PSA prepares to release the second quarter growth rate figures on Tuesday morning.

AB Capital Securities noted that the stock market breached the 6,600-level following the revised first quarter numbers, and on optimism ahead of the release of second quarter GDP data tomorrow.

The country is expected to come out of recession, with Bloomberg showing GDP growth estimates ranging from 7.7 percent to 13.6 percent, with median at 10.9 percent, AB Capital said.

“Investors have been buying ahead of projected bounce in economic growth in the 2nd quarter,” said Luis Limlingan, managing director of Regina Capital.

The high growth figures take into account low base effects, as the GDP contracted by a record 16.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020.

Philippine economic managers have said that they expect the country to grow 6 percent to 7 percent this year as the economy gradually reopens.