アジア開発銀行（ADB）は、フィリピンの経済成長の見通しを維持しました。

フィリピンの国内総生産（GDP）は、公共支出の持続的な増加、顧客の信頼感の向上、ワクチン接種の進行などの理由により、2021年に4.5％、2022年に5.5％の成長が見込まれると発表されました。しかし、デルタ株をはじめとする変異種の脅威のため、回復は依然として脆弱だといいます。ワクチン接種が、経済再開のための鍵となるようです。

一方でADBは別の声明の中で、アジアの発展途上国の成長予測を4月の7.3％から7.1％に切り下げたと発表しました。理由は、変異種の影響、ロックダウンの再開、ワクチン接種の進みが遅く不均一であることだと述べられています。2022年の成長率予測は5.3%から5.4%に引き上げられています。

ADBのチーフエコノミスト代理は、「開発途上国のアジアは、パンデミックに対して依然として脆弱であり、新たな変異種が発生し、いくつかの経済圏では新たな行動制限が行われている。ワクチン接種だけでなく、新たな常態に備えて企業や家計への支援を強化する必要がある。」と述べました。

フィリピン経済は、コロナウイルス の影響で、2020年に第2次世界大戦後最悪の9.6%の収縮を記録しています。変異種など予測不可能な脅威と戦って、経済復興を目指して欲しいです。

以下、ABS-CBN NEWSより

Asian Development Bank keeps Philippine growth outlook; trims forecast for developing Asia

MANILA – The Asian Development Bank on Wednesday kept its Philippine economic growth outlook despite downgrading the forecast for the rest of developing Asia.

The Philippines’ gross domestic product is expected to grow 4.5 percent in 2021 and 5.5 percent in 2022 buoyed by sustained growth in public spending, improving customer confidence as well as progress in the vaccination program, the lender said in a statement.

“The economy has regained its footing and is on the right growth path. But the recovery remains fragile due to the threat posed by more infectious COVID-19 variants,” said ADB Philippines Country Director Kelly Bird.

“Vaccination remains key to the economy’s safe reopening. We are actively supporting the government’s efforts to achieve its national vaccination targets through our health-related assistance.”

Risks, however, remain due to the more contagious and new variants of COVID-19, ADB said.

In a separate statement, the ADB said it has trimmed its growth forecast for developing Asia to 7.1 percent from 7.3 percent in April according to the updated Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021.

The downgrade was due to new COVID-19 variants, local outbreaks, reinstatement of restrictions and lockdowns and slow and uneven vaccine rollouts, ADB said.

Meanwhile, the growth projection for 2022 was increased to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent, it added.

“Developing Asia remains vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic, as new variants spark outbreaks, leading to renewed restrictions on mobility in some economies,” said ADB Acting Chief Economist Joseph Zveglich, Jr.

Zveglich said measures should not only focus on containment and vaccination but also build on support for firms and households in preparation for the new normal.

The Philippine economy contracted by 9.6 percent in 2020, its worst since the end of World War 2, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, revised data showed.

In the first quarter of 2021, the revised data also showed it contracted at a slower rate of 3.9 percent while it emerged from recession in the second quarter after a growth of 11.8 percent.

The second-quarter growth is the highest since the fourth quarter of 1988 but high growth figure takes into account the low base effects, as the economy contracted by a record 17 percent in the second quarter of 2020.