フィリピン中央銀行（Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas）は、基準金利を2%に据え置くことを発表しました。

これにより、BSPは7回連続で基準金利を過去最低水準で維持し、コロナ禍においても経済を支援するために「緩和的」な姿勢を続けることを再確認しました。

ベンジャミン・ディオクノBSP総裁は、デルタ株の影響によるロックダウンなどにより、今年の残りの期間のインフレ見通しは上向きに傾いていると述べています。また、BSPのフランシスコ・ダキラ副総裁は、2021年のインフレ率の見通しを4.1%から4.4%に、2022年は3.1%から3.3%に、2023年は3.1%から3.2%に上方修正しました。

8月のインフレ率が予想よりも高かったのは、天候の乱れ、日用品の価格上昇、メラルコのサービスエリアでの電気料金の上昇、豚肉の価格上昇、地元の原油価格の上昇、台風の影響などが原因のようです。このインフレ率の上昇は 一過性のもの だとディクオノ氏は述べます。このような現状を考えると、9月のインフレ率は5％の可能性があるとダキラ氏は述べてます。

フィリピンではワクチン接種計画に進展が見られたにもかかわらず、デルタ株に経済回復を妨げられているようです。他国の中央銀行は、各国の景気回復が見られることからまもなく利上げを開始するとされます。フィリピンの今後に注目です。

以下、ABS-CBN NEWSより

‘Accommodative’ Bangko Sentral keeps interest rate at 2 percent

MANILA – The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas on Thursday kept the benchmark policy rate steady at 2 percent.

This was the 7th consecutive policy meeting that the BSP kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low as the BSP reaffirmed its commitment to remain “accommodative” to support the economy during the pandemic.

BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno earlier said that the move to tighten the key policy rate and to reduce the reserve requirement is “not the right thing to do” as of this time.

Inflation outlook for the rest of the year is tilted to the upside due to several factors including mobility restrictions brought by the new COVID-19 Delta variant, Diokno said.

Vaccination and the recalibration of containment measures are “crucial in supporting economic activity while safeguarding public health and welfare,” Diokno said.

“To balance, the Monetary Board is of the view that prevailing monetary policy settings remain appropriate given the manageable inflation environment and uncertain growth outlook,” Diokno added.

Inflation outlook for 2021 was also revised upward to 4.4 percent from 4.1 percent, 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent from 3.1 percent in 2023, BSP Deputy Gov. Francisco Dakila said.

A higher than expected August inflation due to weather disturbances, higher prices of several basic goods, higher electricity rates in Meralco serviced areas, elevated pork prices, the uptick in local oil prices and the impact of typhoons were cited for the revision in the inflation outlook, Dakila said.

Inflation accelerated to 4.9 percent in August from 4 percent in July. Diokno earlier said the accelerated inflation numbers were “transitory.”

Given the environment, a 5 percent inflation rate is possible in September, Dakila said.

Despite the positive economic growth in the second quarter and the progress in the country’s COVID-19 vaccination plan, the BSP said the new Delta variant could pose risks to recovery.

Economic growth hit 11.8 percent in the second quarter following a contraction of 3.9 percent in the first quarter.

The high growth figure in Q2 takes into account the low base effects, as the economy contracted by a record 17 percent in the same period last year.

Other central banks have hinted they will soon start raising interest rates as economic recovery in their respective countries gather pace. Many are taking their cue from the US Federal Reserve which is expected to “soon” taper off its monetary stimulus.