首都圏感染者減少

OCTA said that Metro Manila’s latest average is 18 percent lower than the 942 cases daily average recorded during the June 4-10 period.

“The trend has been downward for some time now. The decrease is not as fast as it was before but it’s okay because the cases are still decreasing,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said during the “CoVExit: Getting out of the pandemic (Promises and challenges)” forum organized by the University of the Philippines Science and Society Program.

He noted that Metro Manila had two COVID-19 surges so far–in July-August 2020 and in late February to early March 2021.

“The first surge was in July-August 2020, which had several peaks. The difference was that the second surge back in late February to early March (2021) had a sustained peak. It was stronger in a way although they both reached a reproduction number of about 2 but this was more sustained and that’s why the surge kept continuing and cases kept piling up until a lockdown was implemented and we were able to curb and mitigate the increase in cases,” David said.

OCTA’s latest monitoring showed that the average daily attack rate in Metro Manila was 5.49 per 100,000, which is classified as “moderate.”

The reproduction number is also down to 0.71.

“The NCR (National Capital Region) had a positivity rate of 7 percent. In terms of HCUR (healthcare utilization rate), the NCR had hospital bed occupancy of 35 percent, ICU bed occupancy of 46 percent, and mechanical ventilator occupancy of 31 percent,” OCTA said.

Meanwhile, six areas in Metro Manila had registered ADAR below 5, which classifies these as “moderate-to-low risk.” These are Malabon, Navotas, Caloocan, Marikina, Manila, and Quezon City.

Pateros, Navotas, Malabon, and San Juan had the lowest number of new cases per day over the past week, with less than 20 new cases per day.

In terms of HCUR, Pateros registered above 70 percent hospital bed utilization, while Parañaque and San Juan had higher than 70 percent ICU bed utilization.