October 21, 2021

9月のインフレ率は4.8%に減少

州統計局の発表によると、フィリピンの9月のインフレ率は4.8%に減速したようです。これは8月の4.9%に比べて低い値です。

政府の今年の目標範囲は2〜4%ですが、フィリピン中央銀行の予測では今後のインフレ率は4.8〜5.6%です。

ベンジャミン・ディオクノ副総裁は声明の中で、「9月のインフレ率が鈍化したのは運輸指数の上昇が鈍化したためだが、天候の乱れや世界的な石油の見通し、アフリカ豚インフルエンザの影響などに関連した供給側の要因によって物価が上昇する可能性がある」と述べています。インフレ率は短期的には上昇し続ける可能性がありますが、年末までには目標値内に減速するだろうとも述べています。インフレ率が目標範囲内に戻るかどうかは、これらの供給対策が成功するかどうかに大きく依存するようです。

また、フィリピン中央銀行のフランシスコ・ダキラ副総裁は、経済が引き続き持ち直していることから、2021年のインフレ見通しを4.1%から4.4%に、2022年を3.1%から3.3%に、2023年を3.1%から3.2%に上方修正したと発表しています。BSPは、銀行が融資の際に使用する基準金利を、ほぼ1年前から2%に維持しています。ディオクノ氏は、金融政策は景気回復を支えるために緩和的であり続けると述べていますが、一部のアナリストによると、景気回復のペースが上がれば、中央銀行はすぐに金融政策を引き締める可能性があると述べています。

以下、ABS-CBN NEWSより

Inflation slows to 4.8 percent in September

MANILA (UPDATE) – Inflation slowed to 4.8 percent in September, the state statistics bureau said Tuesday.

This was lower compared to the 4.9 percent in August, National Statistician Dennis Mapa said in a virtual briefing.

The government’s target range for the year is 2 to 4 percent, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ forecast was for inflation to range between 4.8 to 5.6 percent for the month.

The slower inflation for the month was due to slower increase in the transport index but prices could be driven upwards by supply-side factors linked to weather disruptions, global oil prospects, and the continued impact of the African swine fever, SP Gov. Benjamin Diokno said in a statement.

Inflation could remain elevated in the near term before decelerating to within the target by the end of the year, he said.

“The return of inflation to the target range is highly contingent on the successful implementation of these supply measures. The risks to the inflation outlook remain tilted towards the upside for the remaining months of 2021, but remain broadly balanced for 2022 and 2023,” Diokno said.

The inflation outlook for 2021 was revised upward to 4.4 percent from 4.1 percent, 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent from 3.1 percent in 2023 as the economy continued to pick up, BSP Deputy Gov. Francisco Dakila has said.

The BSP has maintained the country’s benchmark interest rate, used by banks to price loans, at 2 percent for almost a year now.

Diokno has said that monetary policy will remain accommodative to support economic recovery.

“This was a good number for the BSP, much lower than what even the market was looking at… this gives BSP Gov. Diokno a little more breathing room to keep policy accommodative for as long as he can,” ING Philippines senior economist told ANC.

But some analysts said the central bank could tighten monetary policy soon as the economic recovery gains pace.

Former BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said interest rate adjustments would probably be implemented gradually in 25 basis points or 50 bps increments.