ワクチン推進で借入プラス成長？

フィリピン中央銀行総裁によると、ここ数カ月間伸び悩んでいた借入は予防接種が軌道に乗れば第3四半期には再びプラス成長に転じる可能性があるようです。コロナ禍でリスクを嫌う銀行が融資条件を厳しくしたため、資金繰りに苦しむフィリピン人からの需要はその不確実性のために減少していました。

総裁は「経済の開放により、信頼感が高まっていると思います。消費者や企業の信頼感は、今後数四半期の間より楽観的な見通しを示しています」と述べています。

フィリピンではパンデミックの影響により多くの企業が通常の融資成長拡張計画を延期していました。また、失業者や収入が減った消費者も借入を控えています。一方、普段は保守的な地方自治体も、2020年には総額600億ペソの借り入れを行うなど、借り入れを増やしているようです。

どの国でもワクチンの効果に経済が委ねられています。

以下、ABS-CBN NEWSより

‘Game-changer’ vaccine drive to bring positive loan growth in Q3: BSP chief

MANILA – Loans, which have been lagging for the last few months, could start growing positively again by the third quarter as the government’s vaccination drive gains ground, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin Diokno on Monday said.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused risk-averse banks to tighten requirements for loans while demand from cash-strapped Filipinos declined due to uncertainties, Diokno told ANC.

“As we open up the economy, I think there’s growing confidence. Consumer and business confidence point to a more optimistic outlook in the next few quarters,” Diokno said.
“There’s a lot of liquidity in the market. There’s risk aversion on the part of the banks but I think confidence is coming back, largely because of the vaccine, for me that’s the game-changer here, the vaccination program,” he added.

The Philippines started its inoculation drive last March.

Due to the pandemic, many companies held off expansion plans which usually drive lending growth. Consumers, who lost their jobs or had their incomes reduced, also refrained from borrowing.
The usually conservative local government units, meanwhile, have been borrowing more with a total of P60 billion in 2020. There could be more borrowing this year, or the year before an election year, Diokno said.